Well, I don't know. It's easy to see a bubble in retrospect, but rather harder before the fact.
It does look like there's a steep climb in new starts without any real market justification (that I can see).
And of course, the quaffale numbers aren't claimed definitive.
But you should see the most excellent
Quaffale site for more info.
Update:
Oh Piss. The late
Simon Johnson beat me to this graph 6 months ago, his here:
http://i528.photobucket.com/albums/dd323/haddonsman/brewery_zpsdaf90b09.jpg
Another Update: Some important dates for consideration when looking at these wiggly lines:
1979 Birth of what will become firkin chain (Bruce's Brewery)
1988 Firkin chain acquired by Midsummer Leisure
1991 Firkin taken over by Allied Lyons (and expands)
1993 (I think) All those little cellar tanks taken out (and sold 2nd hand)
1989 - 2003 Beer Orders in force (I think)
1999 Punch sells off 110 firkin pubs.
2002 PBD introduced.
2009 UK base rate goes down to 0.5%
And Another Update: According to Quaffale, of the 585 breweries opened since (including) 2009, 127 (21.7%) are brewpubs.